聚苯乙烯的思考

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released this week has declined. Since the pandemic, this index has generally been in line with the trend of commodity prices. On the 9th local time, US President Trump did not rule out the possibility of a recession during an interview. He stated that what they are doing currently is of great significance, bringing wealth back to the United States, which is a major matter. There is always a transition period and it takes some time. Trump's chief economic advisor said that trade uncertainties could be resolved in April (note that he also mentioned the time point of April).

Nomura Securities pointed out that the US economy is experiencing a man - made recession. The first stage is what Bessent called the "withdrawal period", or what Trump referred to as the "transition period". The second stage will bring positive effects to the market and revitalize the economy through large - scale deregulation, tax cuts, and interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

In China, continuing to boost consumption can indeed offset some of the impacts of tariffs. However, the main driving force behind the global commodity inventory cycle still lies in inventory replenishment in Europe and the United States!

As we entered the middle of March, after comprehensively analyzing all the information, the evolution path of the market seems to be clearer! And the two questions we are most concerned about are:

Has the right time arrived?

Has the right price level been reached?

As of now, we believe that the "time" has most likely not arrived yet (because April 2nd has not come, and the first stage proposed by Nomura has most likely not been completed). As for the "price level", we think it has most likely been 60% - 70% realized.

Crude oil: This week's Vortex data shows that the global crude oil inventory (including on - land tanks + floating storage, excluding SPR) continued to increase seasonally on a week - on - week basis and was slightly lower than the same period last year on a year - on - year basis. The on - land inventory of refined oil products globally decreased on a week - on - week basis and was the same as last year on a year - on - year basis. Among them, the year - on - year volume of heavy - grade products was significantly lower, while that of medium - grade and light - grade products was slightly higher than last year. This week, the comprehensive refining margins in the United States, ARA, and Singapore only rebounded slightly, and there was no obvious improvement in demand. The cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine is gradually progressing, but on Friday, the United States launched strikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, causing a slight rise in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright plans to seek up to $20 billion to achieve President Donald Trump's goal of replenishing the depleted US oil reserves to their maximum capacity over several years.

Our original Brent crude oil valuation model shows that the current valuation level of Brent crude oil has dropped to the lower range of the past five years and the medium - to - lower range of the past three years. Against the backdrop of weak global refined oil product margins and the US economic restructuring, if there are no surprises regarding the circulation of Canadian crude oil and Middle East geopolitics, Brent crude oil is currently mainly in a weak oscillation. The conclusions about the "time" and "price level" are consistent with those of overall commodities.

Pure benzene: The inventory decreased by 0.4 million tons to 1.41 million tons. The overall weekly trading was weak. The weighted inventory of downstream products decreased. The US dollar - denominated prices continued to decline. The prices in Shandong kept dropping, and trading volume once hit rock - bottom. The prices of major suppliers continued to be adjusted downward. After a significant drop on Wednesday, there were signs of stabilization in terms of both volume and price on Thursday and Friday. We will continue to monitor the holding interest of downstream players and the destocking situation of finished products.

Styrene: The inventory decreased by 0.81 million tons to 1.86 million tons. The overall weekly trading was acceptable. The weighted inventory of downstream products increased. There was a significant drop on Wednesday, but the profit strengthened, and the basis was strong. Although the weighted operating rate of the 3S (Styrene, Styrene - based polymers, and Styrene - related derivatives) sector decreased, terminal trading improved, and the processing profit of the 3S sector was still strong. Currently, the 3S sector has both high inventory and high profit. The visible inventory mainly consists of products that downstream customers have not picked up yet. After inspection this week, there is no problem with the continuity of terminal operations. This week, we will focus on the destocking efficiency of factories and their interest in holding raw materials.

The operating rate of the ABS industry decreased slightly and is expected to remain largely unchanged next week. The overall weekly trading was average, and prices decreased by 100 - 200 yuan. Far - month trading was active, and both bulls and bears started to compete. The opening prices and market prices are gradually approaching. Agents have passed the most difficult period, and the pressure has shifted to ABS factories. The visible inventory increased, while the invisible inventory decreased.

The operating rate of the PS industry increased and is expected to remain unchanged next week. The profit increased by 50 compared to last week, and the absolute price remained the same. The processing fee for transparent polystyrene in East China relative to the 04 futures contract reached 650 yuan. The overall weekly trading was good. The visible inventory increased, while the invisible inventory decreased.

The operating rate of the EPS industry decreased and is expected to remain unchanged next week. The profit remained the same as last week, and the absolute price decreased by 50 yuan. The processing fee for light - grade EPS products in East China relative to the 04 futures contract reached 950 yuan. The overall weekly trading was good, and product pickup accelerated. Currently, the most difficult situation is faced by EPS factories in the north, where most of the inventory needs to be picked up before the end of April according to contracts, as customers have not picked up their ordered products yet. Both the visible and invisible inventories decreased.

Fundamental summary: Pure benzene will still be affected by overseas factors. The destocking of styrene is more certain. There is currently no problem with the demand for the 3S products, nor with the demand from home appliance manufacturers and terminals.

Technical summary: This week, led by the non - ferrous metals sector, the industrial product index stabilized and rebounded. Brent crude oil showed support at the previous low of 68. Chemical products including styrene also rebounded to some extent. We will focus on whether the 223 resistance level of the non - ferrous metals sector and the 168 resistance level of the industrial product index can be effectively broken through.

Trading strategy: Temporarily participate in the rebound, buy low and sell high